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TLT Channel 
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Post Re: TLT Channel
Clair,

TLT looks good so far. What's your opinion on TMF and EDV?


Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:20 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
Milkyway,

Both are similar but I do not like them because of lack of volume (the same reason I do not like DTO).


Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:19 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/270-bi ... d-schedule

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Thu Aug 27, 2009 10:21 am
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Post Re: TLT Channel
Thanks JP. I sold all my TLT today and bought some TBT. TLT had a doji today - possible retracement in the next few days.


Thu Aug 27, 2009 5:00 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
interesting

10yr yield made new high 6/13/2007
spx made new high 10/7/2007 ( yield didn't make new high)

That was a top for spx ( approx 4 month gap between 2 )


10yr yield made new low 12/18/2008
spx made new low 3/9/2009 ( yield didn't make new low )

That was a bottom for spx ( approx 3 month gap between 2 )


10yr yield made new high 6/11/2009

spx made new high 8/28/2009 ( yield didn't make new high)

New top for spx approx 3 month gap ????


or Maybe not :roll: :roll:

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Tue Sep 01, 2009 7:24 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
sky.line1974 wrote:
New top for spx approx 3 month gap ????


We might just have to keep you around :D

Good find

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Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:38 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
10yr yield trend doesn't look good for stock market bulls except for pisaaaaaaaaniiiiiiii.
A big move of 2.37% on relative flat stock market

Next support 32.68 jul low.

using my "bear" goggles I see 25 :lol: :lol:


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Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:17 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
Something to keep in mind of. Fed behind 50% of all Q2 treasury purchases:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/federa ... -purchases

So, how will the Feds keep interest rates low after the POMO program expires?

Simple: In case I haven't made it clear before, the Fed is going to turn the money markets into their private fund. The full faith and credit of
the United States dollar is being replaced by the full faith and
credit of Lehman and Bear Sterns CDO writers who in court documents
admitted that their products were "junk, vomit, and garbage." [actual
words]

It may surprise you but I am actually BULLISH on sub-prime - for the
simple fact that I am getting a higher interest rate than treasuries
and corporate bonds AND b/c Bernanke is buying them non-stop 24/7 for
the past year. His plan to stop buying MBS OFFICIALLY ends
early next year (around March I believe, they gave it a 3 month
extension).

But just because I am taking the risk of buying these garbage pails
does not mean you, other Americans, or the rest of the world should be
too. I made a conscious decision and am aware of the risks involved.

The Chinese are aware of it too which is why I posted the link to
their talks w/Brazil. How do you think they feel about their precious
treasury holdings being interchangeable for "garbage, junk, and
vomit?"

http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009 ... tinue.html

The other 50% of treasury purchases were bought by foreign central banks - and mostly on the shorter end of the curve. Which leaves the Treasury with a huge problem funding the longer end of the curve. My advice? Watch those "Caribbean banking centers" [aka slush funds] buying/selling activities.

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Last edited by jpmoy99 on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:48 am, edited 2 times in total.

Added section on remaining 50% of purchasers and FCBs



Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:31 am
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Post Re: TLT Channel
Yuck... likely missed the perfect entry point on Thursday for TLT?


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Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:43 pm
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Post Re: TLT Channel
Almost time for the flattener crowd to move in:

Quote:
I predict that fund flows from major institutions will be sloshing around the global financial system in a quest to figure out which country is weakest and thereby short that nation's bonds. The dollar, by virtue of its reserve currency status, will benefit from this comparative weakness. This means we can see market corrections among the most popular carry trades like AUD/USD and BRL/USD w/spillover effects in weaker commodity prices as well as gold.

But in the short term, as the 2-10 year spread approaches record steepness, it may be time to become a bull for the longer end of the curve. Especially after stories like this hit the media.

Further out, I have been considering placing bear put spread trades against the longer end of the curve by buying closer otm strikes on 30 year puts (LEAPs) while selling the same month strike further otm on the same expiration. 2011 and 2012 look like interesting bets w/2012 obviously safer because theta works in the call buyer's favor.


http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/12/debts-of-world-bond-vigilantes-place.html

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 12:41 am
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